WHEN you think about the future of cars, two things usually come to mind. Firstly, you expect them to become more — or perhaps totally — automated. Secondly, you expect them to become greener as well, with some cars going fully electric. These are things you can expect from planes too. But will they also go much faster? The answer to that might surprise you.
Let’s look at the first point: Automation. It’s not surprising that currently consumers are still very wary about self-driving cars. Despite the fact that there are plenty of studies that show automated cars are safer than human-driven cars, people still feel uncomfortable about the idea of being in a car that drives itself.
Now, imagine how much more wary consumers would be about pilotless planes. Well, they already exist in the form of drones. The question is, would you be willing to fly in a drone? Currently, the answer for many people would probably be no way!
What the public is probably not aware of is that much of today’s airplanes are already automated. Consumer surveys on this topic show that more people think that pilots fly manually than is actually the case. Today’s airlines have automated systems that complement human pilots. These systems help to control and navigate the planes, and in some cases, can even help with landings.
The airline industry loves automation. It saves money and is actually safer. As with the case of cars, human error is the most common cause of accidents. And humans being humans are likely to make the same mistakes over and over again (like using the mobile phone while driving). In contrast, automated systems can be programmed to never repeat a mistake that has made before. As such, it just gets better and better at eliminating errors.
It’s likely that people will be more willing to take pilotless planes once driverless cars become the norm. Once people are used to the fact that machines can control vehicles better than humans can, they will accept it. It will take some time for that to happen though.
GREENER PLANES
The world is growing greener, and this too will be the case with the airline industry. Electric cars are not the norm but they already exist and are viable. Tesla has proven that in the US. Meanwhile, several companies are working on electric planes but these aren’t likely to be commercially available anytime soon.
This has much to do with battery life. While electric cars can actually stop at charging stations during long trips, planes can’t very well recharge mid-air. As such, electric will be limited to short-haul flights. We’re talking about 160km or so. It will be a long time before any kind of electric plane can fly over oceans.
But planes don’t have to go fully electric to be greener. Like cars, they can go hybrid too. Airbus is working on a project called E-FanX which aims to replace one of its four engines with an electric version.
It’s worth exploring just how important it is for planes to become greener. After all, air travel currently only accounts for about 2.4 per cent of global carbon dioxide emissions. However, the United Nations’ International Civil Aviation Organisation predicts aviation could represent 25 per cent of the global carbon budget by 2050 based on the need to keep global temperature rise to within 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
SUPERSONIC FLIGHTS
It would be very natural to assume that planes of the future will be much faster. This is where conventional wisdom is way off. Airplanes have been flying at the same speed (between 885kmph to 965kmph) since the 1960s and that isn’t about to change any time soon.
Technologically, it has long been possible to have supersonic flight. The Concorde, for example, flew at 2092kmph for 27 years before it stopped operating in 2003. Being able to fly at such speed means much shorter flying time.
For example, it could fly from London to New York in just under four hours in a Concorde. But it would cost you a bomb. This is why the industry isn’t exactly clamouring to revive the Concorde or anything like it.
A typical supersonic flight would cost you perhaps five times as much as a conventional flight. It’s really not air travel for the masses and it’s unlikely to ever be. There simply isn’t that much consumer demand for such pricey flights.
High net worth individuals might want such conveniences though. And there are a few start-up companies like Boom Technology and Aerion Supersonic that are trying to make smaller jets for wealthy passengers. Supersonic flights could be something that’s available in the future — just not for everyday people but the mega-rich.
Oon Yeoh is a consultant with experiences in print, online and mobile media. Reach him at oonyeoh@gmail.com.