MALAYSIA's new vehicle sales in November do not make for good reading, but the industry body expects growth in December.
This will be driven by aggressive year-end promotions as dealerships look to reduce inventories ahead of the new year, accordimg to the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA).
The November total sales dropped 3.3 per cent month-on-month to 67,532 units, no thanks to lower passenger vehicle and commercial vehicle volumes which fell 2.9 per cent and 7.8 per cent respectively.
However, the overall volume still grew 1.4 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in the first 11 months of 2024 (11M24) on resilient passenger vehicle demand, especially for Perodua, Honda and Chinese brands.
CIMB Securities analyst Mohd Shanaz Noor Azam attributed the stronger sales to resilient demand for vehicles from market leader Perodua, which expanded its market share by 3.1 percentage points to 44.6 per cent on the back of a nine per cent YoY volume growth.
Perodua is on track for another record sales delivery this year given that its 11M24 performance already made up 99 per cent of its 2023 sales volume.
Perodua is targeting a sales volume of at least 353,000 units in 2024 versus 330,000 units in 2023.
Toyota retains its leading position in the non-national segment, albeit with a lower 12 per cent market share in 11M24 versus 13.3 per cent in 11M23, followed by Honda with 9.9 per cent.
Chinese players continue to capture a bigger market share, with Cherry having now become the fifth-largest marque in the Malaysian market, ahead of Mitsubishi and Mazda, with 2.3 per cent
market share.
Mohd Shanaz expects BYD to remain the market leader in the battery electric vehicle (BEV) segment with 30 per cent market share on the back of 7,300 units sold in 11M24.
"Overall, we estimate BEV sales contributed 3.3 per cent to the 11M24 industry volume," he said.
Meanwhile, RHB Research said Toyota had led the decline with a 6.7 per cent MoM drop in November sales volume, followed by Perodua (-5.7 per cent) and Proton (-5.0 per cent).
In contrast, Honda bucked the trend, recording a 12.7 per cent MoM increase in sales volume.
Cautious Outlook
CIMB Securities expect the total industry volume (TIV) to drop four per cent YoY to 755,000 units in 2025.
This will be due to headwinds such as the potential removal of the RON95 petrol subsidy in mid-2025 and a possible revision of the open market value (OMV) calculation method that would effectively increase the excise duty.
OMV refers to the total value of the locally assembled vehicle at the ex-factory stage.
MAA previously estimated that the OMV calculation revision could raise the average selling prices of locally assembled vehicles by 8.0-20 per cent. However, its implementation has been deferred multiple times, with the latest extension until 31 Dec 2024.
"Despite these challenges, removing the RON95 subsidy could accelerate the adoption of BEVs," Mohd Shanaz said.
CIMB Securities also expects higher BEV adoption in 2025F, driven by new model launches, new entrants, and rising competition among EV players ahead of the duty exemptions for imported models ending in 2026, after which domestic assembly will take precedence.
Nonetheless, demand for national brands like Proton and Perodua is expected to remain robust, supported by first-time buyers and the mass-market segment.
The government plans to retain subsidies for 85 per cent of RON95 users under 2025 Budget, maintaining the affordability of national vehicles.
As a result, CIMB Securities expect national brands to maintain their dominance, capturing a 65 per cent market share versus 35 per cent for non-national brands in 2025.
RHB Research expects a TIV of 730,000 units in 2025, indicating an eight per cent fall from its 2024 projection of 790,000 units.
As the high base effect sets in, the firm said it does not foresee any compelling factors for 2025 auto sales to remain at the current elevated levels.
"We believe the decline will primarily be driven by non-national marques, which continue to face intensifying competition due to the entry of new players, particularly Chinese carmakers.
"Some car buyers may delay their purchases in anticipation of further price cuts from both existing and new non-national marques, which could destabilise the non-national segment," it added.