The most famous start to any national leadership role was surely that of former New York governor Franklin Roosevelt to the White House in 1933, amidst our greatest recession ever. But, maybe president-elect Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines will outdo him, and that’s really my subject today.
But, first a little history. Roosevelt, the only president to have been elected to more than two terms — he made it into his fourth — really didn’t know what he planned to do when he promised hope in his first 100 days. “The only thing we need to fear is fear itself,” he said, and from then on he could do no wrong. He created jobs by the million, and he cursed the super-rich from which he hailed (“… and I welcome their hatred”). The more he got into the job, the more dramatic his moves, until he tried to pack the Supreme Court. He lifted the national spirit and was an inspired war leader as well. It all came just a bit at a time but the change was geometric.
Here in Manila, Mayor Duterte (of the southern city of Davao) is making waves five weeks before his inauguration and the message is: “Get in line”. One by one his most prominent opponents are coming out in support. He’s promised to turn the republic into a federal and parliamentary system, which would be a more real and positive change than the past 70 years all together. He has preempted the threat of impeachment by backing a lifelong friend, Panteleon Alvarez, of somewhat dubious reputation, for House Speaker. Or, as Duterte promises, he will close it down. He’s promised several cabinet positions to members of the Communist Party, if the party as a whole cooperates with him. Many are, thus, accusing him of being a “Commie”, pure and simple. The message is clear to everyone: get on board or watch your back carefully.
Anyway, none of this is very simple. Remember that “people power” as a phrase emerged from the overthrow of dictator Ferdinand Marcos in 1986; People Power II was the demand that the drunk and corrupt president “Erap” Estrada leave power in 2001. He’s thriving as the reelected mayor of Manila, but he no longer drinks the nation dry.
And, remember: President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, president throughout the new millennial decade, didn’t try to hang onto power beyond her dubiously elected term; the army, the threat of another People Power and the absence of support (that she thought she did have) from the United States made her crawl out of the palace a few days early. She is now imprisoned in a military hospital, possibly for life. The charge is plunder, a capital crime. A few billion dollars seem to have come her way as president.
So, though the Philippines is definitely a culture of impunity, it isn’t utterly lawless or craven towards dictatorship. There’s now an embedded history of resistance to tyranny. Duterte has to get quick results in stability without jeopardising the second highest economic growth rate in the world.
Let’s put this all in a bigger international context. The world as we knew it, is falling apart. Putin, European right-wing dictators, the European Union up for grabs, then the ugliest case of all, Donald Trump in the US, all are outside the mainstream of “progress”, “globalisation”, and the other mantras we have lived by in my long lifetime.
I’m not sure Duterte is far from this new world, where in the midst of uncertainty people want strong leaders to guide them, to prevent even more instability. Certainly, in the Philippines the need and desire for order are everywhere evident.
There is also the “presidential effect”. Even Trump as he contemplates actually being president is toning down his Dumbo rhetoric, or better yet thinking about what he’s going to say before he opens his ugly mouth.
If Duterte can decentralise power in his country, and drastically reduce crime, he will be a legitimate national hero. If he really only wants pure power, uninhibited, and his casual attitude to the law is just an enabler of dictatorship, then the Philippines will quickly sink back into the mire into which Ferdinand and Imelda Marcos dragged it by the 1980s. And, there will be resistance that his goons can’t control.
My bet is that equilibrium will be established. Duterte isn’t stupid. He knows the country isn’t a southern city; he knows his country is becoming a serious player in the world given its location and rapid growth, and whatever silly things he says, he will do more of the right ones.
Roosevelt died almost an immortal; Marcos was flown to an ignominious exile. Duterte, I hope, is choosing the former path, because he’s one of the smartest people around.
W. Scott Thompson is professor emeritus of international politics, Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, United States