PUTRAJAYA: The Conditional Movement Control Order (CMCO) which has been enforced nationwide, except for Perlis, Pahang and Kelantan, is the best strategy to lower the R-naught (R0) without disrupting the economy.
Health director-general Tan Sri Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah said reducing the R0 is crucial to stem the tide of Covid-19 infections in the country.
"R-naught (R0) is the infectivity rate. For example, if the R0 is 2, this means another 2,000 people will be infected with the virus in the next cycle.
"At the beginning of the third wave, our R0 stood at 2.2. The implementation of CMCO in Sabah, Selangor, Putrajaya and Kuala Lumpur has managed to bring down the R0 from 2.2 to 1.5, and it is currently less than 1 (between 0.95 to 0.96).
"However, we need to increase our ground level activity, including public health intervention and take all precautionary measures, such as surveillance, to further bring the R0 down.
"We hope to bring it down to 0.6 or 0.5. That means, if we have 1,000 people infected now, only 500 people will be infected in the next cycle and the numbers can be subsequently lowered.
Dr Noor Hisham said although the country saw spikes in Covid-19 cases lately, the high number of new cases does not necessarily reflect the value of R0.
"We had a spike on Oct 2, and Oct 26 and this almost skewed the forecast that we have. But, this was because we increased our screenings in the prison, especially from the Kepayan cluster.
"On Nov 6, we recorded the country's highest daily Covid-19 cases (1755 cases) on Nov 6 and almost reached an R0 of 1.5.
"But if this is true that the R0 is 1.5, then we should be seeing spikes along the same trajectory every day.
"So, it was only one spike, and it was because we were doing screening at the Temporary Detention Centre and Sandakan Prison. The following day, the cases fell back to below 1,000.
"That actually shows that CMCO is working.
"The CMCO implementation in Selangor was met with many objections at the beginning. But we advised for it to be done because the R0 was high and the state also has a large population density.
"Currently, we have six districts that are red zones in Selangor and probably another two districts will also become red zones soon," he said, adding that the ministry's advice to implement the CMCO in Selangor proved to be timely.
Dr Noor Hisham reaffirmed that CMCO was a better alternative compared to the Movement Control Order (MCO) in order to strike the right balance between protecting lives and livelihood.
"In the second wave, we focused mainly on targeted interventions in suspected localities. But today, the virus is already in the community and we need to restrict social mobility.
"So we proactively implement the CMCO as a pre-emptive measure. It will be too late if we do it after all the areas turn red," he said.