KUALA LUMPUR: The interstate travel ban should remain in force during both the fasting month and Hari Raya Aidilfitri celebrations to avoid a possible surge in Covid-19 infections, which in turn could further exacerbate the economy and healthcare system.
Medical experts cautioned that based on evidence in the past one year, festive holidays and gatherings have proven to be a catalyst of Covid-19 infections across the country.
Reopening state borders, they believe, may end up triggering a fourth wave of Covid-19 cases.
Epidemiologist and biostatistician Associate Professor Dr Malina Osman said it was expected that the number of Covid-19 cases would continue to be on a downward trend for the next two to four weeks.
"If the current pattern continues, we can expect active cases to reach three digits in three to four weeks. And with the proportion of those receiving vaccines increasing, I think the number of infections will further decline during the fasting month," she told the New Straits Times.
She said if Malaysia recorded a significant number of vaccinated individuals, an immunity bubble could be formed, thus allowing Ramadan bazaar and terawih prayers to be conducted safely in the mosques.
However, for interstate travelling, she said it should be deferred until two weeks after Hari Raya to avoid triggering a fourth wave of Covid-19 cases.
She said those in the vulnerable groups should be vaccinated before the ban could be lifted or else Malaysia would run the risk of initiating new cases and clusters.
"Interstate travel is always associated with 'balik kampung' and close social gatherings (which pose a risk).
"Interstate travel could be allowed gradually for those who have completed the vaccination with a second dose for tourism purposes or any situation related to economic activities only, but not for 'balik kampung' purposes. We must protect the vulnerable groups."
Senior Minister (Security Cluster) Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob had on March 18 said the Health Ministry would conduct a risk assessment in May on whether or not to allow interstate travel for Hari Raya.
Ismail Sabri noted that 32 "balik kampung" clusters had emerged when interstate travel was previously allowed to resume last year. He cited Sarawak and Kelantan as examples, where they went from green zones to red and orange zones upon the resumption of interstate travel.
The government had, however, given the green light for Ramadan bazaars and terawih prayers to be conducted during the month of Ramadan with strict standard operating procedures (SOP).
Melaka Manipal Medical College's Community and Occupational Medicine Professor Dr G. Jayakumar said the premature lifting of interstate travel could spark a resurgence of infections and cause severe, longer-term damage to the economy.
"The movement of people during this period will be in huge numbers. We should restrict interstate travel during this upcoming Ramadan and Hari Raya period. The number of Covid-19 cases are declining recently.
"We cannot let our guard down. We learnt a bitter lesson last year when there was a spike in cases when travel restrictions were relaxed during the Sabah elections."
Restrictions, he said, gave time for governments to reduce the incidence of disease and put in place robust yet sustainable measures to prevent and control transmission.
Even with vaccinations rolling out, Dr Jayakumar said it was too soon to consider lifting the ban due to the uncertainties, especially concerning new variants of the SARS-CoV-2 and the vaccines' efficacy.
"Malaysia is in the early stage of vaccinating the population. Vaccine rollout plans face distribution and allocation hurdles.
"New variants of SARS-CoV-2 are sprouting up that might be more transmissible and resistant to vaccines. The longer it takes to stem transmission of the virus, the more time these variants have to emerge and spread.
"Many unknowns with a bearing on the effectiveness of immunisation programmes remain.
"Public health physicians are grappling with the answers on how long will immunity last and the effectiveness of vaccines on newer variants of the virus."
Dr Jayakumar also raised concerns over congregations such as the Ramadan bazaars and terawih prayers, which had been given the nod, citing that health preventive measures often falter.
Enforcement becomes challenging and tricky due to the nature of events, he noted.
"When and how to ease restrictions are common challenges governments worldwide face as they seek to balance health, social and economic concerns.
"There is increasing realisation that removing Covid-19 restrictions is not about returning to the pre-pandemic normal but about gradually and cautiously transitioning to a new normal, while being ready to reimpose measures if, and when, necessary.
"The public has a big role to play to accommodate the new norm," he added.
Malaysian Public Health Physicians Association president Datuk Dr Zainal Ariffin Omar said the number of cases should be closely monitored before the authorities could decide on lifting the interstate travel ban.
He said the premature lifting of the ban and allowing large gatherings could lead to an increase in virus cases that might call for the government to revert to a stringent Movement Control Order as before.
"The authorities as well as the community must follow the SOP in all premises now and during the month of Ramadan to prevent new clusters and cases.
"National immunisation will only have a significant impact after attaining significant coverage, which could take between six and eight months. The Health Ministry should continue with nationwide Covid-19 community-based surveillance."