KUALA LUMPUR: The uptick in Covid-19 cases is expected to continue, burning through public health resources in the Klang Valley for a few more weeks, before cooling off in mid-September.
An expert said this followed the projection that 10 per cent of the population would have developed natural immunity to the virus after being infected, while another 50 per cent would be protected after being fully vaccinated.
Epidemiologist Dr Sanjay Rampal said as long as the transmission rates were consistent, a record number of new cases and healthcare utilisation, including Intensive Care Unit (ICU) bed occupancy, would mirror trends within one to three weeks.
He said the extensive strain on the public healthcare facilities in the area would also last for at least four weeks, until the end of next month, when the milestone for artificial (through vaccination) and natural (through infection) immunity levels was achieved.
"At that point, the population would have some level of immunity (herd immunity) towards the virus.
"Even when infected with newer strains, the virus would no longer be novel to the body post-infection or vaccination.
"So, infections will continue even after we reach the milestone, somewhere between end of August and mid of September, but the transmission rates would be slashed by half," he told the New Straits Times in a phone interview yesterday.
The Universiti Malaya professor explained that the 10 per cent and 50 per cent milestone for infections and inoculation applied to both the population in general and specific areas like the Klang Valley, where the healthcare system was under strain.
A total of 798,955 people in Malaysia have recovered from Covid-19 up to yesterday.
However, experts believe this figure is higher, as infections among asymptomatic cases were predominant and circulating sporadically.
Up to July 20, 14.6 per cent of the population have been vaccinated. With the recently announced Operation Surge Capacity, the shift is on the inoculation of all adults in Selangor that accounts for the bulk of the caseload in the Klang Valley and Malaysia.
Dr Sanjay urged Putrajaya to exercise its stakeholder rights and claim the use of private hospital space, assets and facilities in the Klang Valley which are indirectly owned by them through government-linked agencies or investment companies.
"These hospitals should be converted into Covid-19 treatment facilities, and human resources can be commonly sourced."
He said there was no requirement to exercise emergency laws for this. Still, he stressed the need for greater integration of private facilities, while reiterating that public hospitals in the Klang Valley were operating under severe strain.
"The government is still nice about it, but there is capacity on the private side that can be tapped to treat patients now," he said, adding that the government could supplement this by repurposing public hospitals.
Health economist Dr Maznah Dahlui has urged the government to set a ceiling price for Covid-19 treatment in private hospitals.
She said the Emergency Ordinance allowed the government to force private hospitals to take in more Covid-19 patients, especially with Categories 4 and 5 patients overwhelming ICUs in public facilities.
Dr Maznah said Putrajaya was empowered to take over wards, ICUs, floors or even wings for compensations that the government saw fit.
The Universiti Malaya professor said the law applied to deploy private doctors, especially consultants, to public and field hospitals.
Meanwhile, Dr Sanjay pitched that the Klang Valley, including Negri Sembilan, southern Perak and Bentong, Pahang, be carved out as an epidemiological zone with movement restrictions for social and economic activities lifted.
"Although people should be barred from moving out of the zone to limit transmission beyond borders, they should be allowed to go anywhere with strict compliance to standard operating procedures (SOP). There should be no crowding, congestion or mass gathering in the area.
"Fifty people could, for instance, be allowed to gather in a hall provided there is adequate distancing, good ventilation and SOP compliance."
He also defended the need for public health investment in terms of testing and tracing, despite detractors saying it would only lead to a higher number of cases while health services struggled to cope.
"More resources need to be pumped into contact tracing, not finding out the source of the outbreak like before. Now it is about preventing transmission and getting exposed cases under quarantine or home surveillance orders as soon as possible."
The public health expert said asymptomatic patients should be able to observe quarantine at home and monitor their health progress themselves.
"Only those with symptoms should go to a Covid-19 Assessment Centre, where cases that need to be sent to hospitals would be isolated." By Veena Babulal