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'Don't whet the appetite of one you're trying to appease'

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia and other claimants of the South China Sea (SCS) dispute should continue rejecting China's claims on the whole of the territorial waters.

This is what a United States defence expert thought about former Malaysian Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad statement that China can claim the SCS but that doesn't mean that other countries with overlapping claims should accept it.

"A lot of people paid attention to what former Prime Minister said. Not second guess his intentions, but it's important for Malaysia to continue rejecting China's excessive claims," said Dr Toshi Yoshihara, Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, an independent, non-profit, Washington, D.C-based think tank specializing in US defense policy.

For him, acquiescing to China's policy preferences on SCS will not satiate Beijing's ambitions.

"I see the policy of accomodating China as sort of like taxes, you either pay now and pay later with penalties. Accomodating China is like paying later with extra penalties in the form of blood, sweat and tears.

"History tends to be pretty harsh lesson is that appeasement and accomodation can frequently whet the appetite of the one that you're trying to appease," he stressed.

On a related matter, Dr Toshi praised the Philippines tactics that expose China's recent aggression in the SCS as a model for other claimants involved in the dispute for the territorial waters to follow as it put China on the backfoot.

The other deterrence factor against China's claim in the SCS including Taiwan is how far is the US commitment to its friends and allies in the region.

"I think one of the things Philippines has done a very good job is simply to engage in transparency, to be able to air footages of Chinese coercive action whether the water cannoning incident or efforts to block Philippines access to outpost in in Second Thomas Shoal," said Dr Toshi.

He adds: "So part of it is to engage head on in the battle for narratives between China and rival claimants. I think its a really important one and i think China has in many ways are on the backfoot as a result of this.

"It has been essentially a public relations disaster for China. It (the footage) change a lot of people's mind when you have this massive coast guard that dwarfs the Philippines vessels using water cannoning but again the violent force of water cannoning suggested that it can actually inflict casualties and even death.

"And that has change the narrative around and China is struggling to deal with the new narrative that has emerged," he said.

Dr Toshi also described what China's Defence Minister Dong Jun declared at the Shangri-La Dialogue has not done Beijing any favours especially on the issue of Taiwan.

He refers to Dong Jun's declaration: "We will take resolute actions to curb Taiwan's independence and make sure such a plot never succeeds. Anyone who dares to separate Taiwan from China will only end up in self-destruction."

"It simply reinforces China intimidating bullying tactics. So i think what the Philippines has done is engage very cleverly as a smaller weaker power to use the narrative to defend itself.

"Again i think the power of images is very difficult to underestimate, think about the rallying effect of Ukraine by showing the world what Russia is doing."

The other factor that has a restraining effect on China is the US commitment to defence the Philippines.

"We know that US statements in the past has had a crystallising effect on Beijing calculations.

"The Obama administration for example made very clear in another dispute, the Senkaku Island with Japan where the the administration that the Senkaku fell within the parameters of the US-Japan defence treaty. i think it had a constraining factor on China."

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