KUALA LUMPUR: The Nenggiri by-election on Saturday has raised concerns about the stability of Perikatan Nasional (PN) in the seats it secured in the 2022 General Election (GE15) and the 2023 state elections.
The state seat, which Barisan Nasional (BN) recaptured with a 3,352-vote majority, suggests that seats secured by PN in these elections may no longer be guaranteed for the coalition, indicating a shift in the political landscape.
It also suggests a trend of the seats returning to BN control.
Historically, the Nenggiri seat has been a stronghold for BN.
However, in last year's Kelantan state election, BN lost control of the seat by 810 votes.
This was a shift from the 2018 state election when BN had retained the seat with a majority of 461 votes.
International Islamic University Malaysia Political Science Department Assistant Professor Dr Lau Zhe Wei said: "The results suggest a reversal of trends, with BN regaining control of a seat that had swung to PN.
"This could indicate a broader trend where seats won by PN in GE15 and 2023 state elections are no longer as secure as once thought.
"This shift also suggests that the green wave, while influential, may not guarantee long-term control in all areas."
Lau said the implications of the by-election were manifold.
"The key takeaway is that the state seat reverted to its previous status.
This suggests that future by-elections, state elections, or GEs might see a return to the voting patterns observed in 2018 or earlier.
"The results also highlight that even in strongholds, such as Kelantan for PN, maintaining control is not guaranteed.
"The by-election indicates that local factors and voter sentiment can influence outcomes, challenging the notion of an absolute green wave advantage."
Lau said the by-election also saw BN capitalising on local development issues and mobilising its supporters, reflecting the importance of addressing regional concerns to secure voter support.
"The BN/Umno campaign strategy in Nenggiri focused on infrastructure and economy developments, focusing on the promises made by Pas state government that are yet to be materialised.
"PN's strategy, on the other hand, was towards the right-wing or conservative direction."
Lau noted the good cooperation between BN and Umno with unity government partners like DAP, which contributed to the victory.
"There may be hiccups when Ku Li (Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah) asked DAP leaders to stay out of Nenggiri, which the party took casually through its secretary-general Anthony Loke, who said the party would go (to help to campaign) only if there was a need for it to do so.
"This mutual understanding, in the spirit of the unity government, works well.
"Although, in my opinion, Ku Li should have not mentioned it so openly."
International Islamic University Malaysia Associate Professor of Political Science Dr Syaza Farhana Mohamad Shukri said the results suggested a "return" of voter support to BN rather than a direct rejection of PN.
She said while the green wave had swept voters in the Kelantan state election, Nenggiri had traditionally been a BN stronghold.
"The turnout yesterday (Saturday) exceeded last year's, indicating that BN had convinced its voters to come out to vote this year.
"I think people are more concerned about development issues," she told the New Straits Times.
She suggested that voters were increasingly focused on development issues and were more confident that a BN representative, being part of the federal government, could deliver on development promises.
Regarding campaign strategies, she said BN's door-to-door approach in Nenggiri was effective in regaining voter support.
"In a predominantly Malay area, there was little need for PH or DAP to engage, even under the banner of the unity government.
"Development promises plus a Malay-centric strategy gave BN an edge."