The pragmatic and traditional sentiments of Malay voters in Negri Sembilan could see Barisan Nasional (BN) make a strong comeback in the state come polling day.
Despite being partners with Pakatan Harapan (PH) in the federal unity government, analysts believe that if BN retains its sway over the state's Malay voters, it could lead the way in defeating Perikatan Nasional (PN) and even outshine its coalition partners.
BN lost the state to PH in the 14th General Election in 2018.
A New Straits Times analysis found that 20 of the 36 constituencies are Malay-majority, accounting for 55 per cent of the seats in the state assembly.
This makes Negri Sembilan the state with the highest proportion of Malay-majority seats compared with other PH stronghold states such as Selangor (51 per cent) and Penang (25 per cent).
In the last state election in 2018, BN won 12 Malay-majority state seats while PH secured eight. Overall, PH took the state with the state with 20 seats.
The Seri Menanti constituency has the highest proportion of Malay voters at 97.4 per cent. The seat was won by BN's Datuk Abdul Samad Ibrahim, who has held the seat since 2008.
Analysts said because of this trend, PH would be relying on BN supporters in its bid to retain the state.
Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia's Institute of Ethnic Studies deputy director Professor Dr Kartini Aboo Talib @ Khalid believes that strong traditional sentiments in Negri Sembilan could see a wave of strong support for Umno, BN's lynchpin party, in the election.
"Most voters in Negri Sembilan have strong traditional sentiments and with this sentiment, adat (tradition) is Umno and Umno is adat.
"Therefore, the strong support for Umno in the past would see voters retaining the tradition (of supporting the party)."
She, however, cautioned that the threat posed by PN, which was almost exclusively targeting Malay votes, was a potent one.
"It's 50:50. Even a modest shift will be a big advantage to PN. However, if traditional voters remain firm with Umno, PH will retain Negri Sembilan."
She said PH and BN would have to effectively woo the Malay support that PN was also targeting in order to win the polls.
"I think the PN's 'green wave' is harnessing a tsunami of support among voters in the Malay belt, thanks to 'TikTok-isation' that every second influences young and mid-aged voters.
"It is not impossible to witness a significant shift of support from BN to PN," she said.
Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Dr Azmi Hassan believes that in spite of BN working with former rivals DAP in the state election, the pragmatic and rational nature of voters in Negri Sembilan could see BN winning most of the seats in the state.
"If we look at the 2018 state election and GE15 results, most of Malay support leans towards BN instead of PH.
"It is even more apparent in GE15. Even though at that time, Umno was doing worse and was at its weakest point, it still managed a very healthy result in Negri Sembilan."
He added that for Negri Sembilan, Malay voters would be the kingmakers and that their support for Umno candidates as well as to an extent, PH candidates would play a decisive role.