KUALA LUMPUR: The battle for the P176 Kimanis parliamentary seat is likely to see a tug of war between a veteran party and the new kid on the block.
Sabah Umno, established in 1991, will be challenged by the three-year-old Parti Warisan Sabah (Warisan) for the second time since the 14th General Election (GE14).
In GE14, Warisan was represented by Datuk Karim Bujang who came close to toppling Umno, represented by four-term lawmaker Datuk Seri Anifah Aman.
Anifah, the then foreign minister, barely managed to cling on to the seat for Umno with a 156-vote margin.
A similar close contest may take place on Jan 18 when the election is held and it would all depend on both Umno and Warisan’s political approach, maturity and acceptance among voters and their respective electoral machinery.
But most importantly, it will all go down to the faces they are fielding.
Talk on the ground has it that Kimanis voters want fresh blood to represent them in the Dewan Rakyat.
However, it seems that both Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional would be fielding one of their local warlords despite surveys showing voters were disinterested in seeing old faces.
One Pakatan Harapan grassroots leader said there had been discussions within the pact whether Karim should represent PH this time around despite giving Anifah a difficult time in GE14.
“Some of us think it should not be Karim again. He had his chance but he lost and now, many voters want someone new.
“It will be a mistake if we don’t listen to what the voters want,” the grassroots leader said.
Another insider within the ruling pact claimed that there is an ongoing tussle between Warisan and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) in Sabah over the by-election.
The source told the New Straits Times that Bersatu Sabah has yet to let go of the seat despite issuing public statements saying all is well between the two parties. The insider claimed that Sabah Bersatu believe they have a better chance of winning than Warisan although the latter holds the state government.
“The reason is that leaders in Sabah Bersatu are basically Umno men who just changed their clothes and these men have a really strong grassroots presence.
“Bear in mind that Sabah Bersatu is nothing like Bersatu in the peninsula and in Sabah, like it or not, the people still like Umno for sentimental reasons.
“So, if PH fields a Bersatu candidate, that person has a fighting chance against Umno and if the person loses, he or she will not lose with a big majority like what happened in Tanjung Piai (by-election),” the insider said.
While some believe that Umno is no longer relevant in Sabah, political analyst Dr Zaini Othman rejected the perception.
“Technically, Umno didn’t lose in Sabah, or at least not among the people.
“Umno lost because of all the crossovers (of lawmakers to PH parties) and this does not sit well with the voters.
“Kimanis has been an Umno stronghold since it was re-created in 2004 and based on my survey, I found that the ‘Umno memory’ is still strong among the electorate.”
Sabah Umno liaison chairman Datuk Seri Bung Moktar Radin, when contacted, said he was confident of the party’s chances in retaining the Kimanis seat.
He dismissed rumours of internal friction within Umno and strongly believed that Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS), a former BN ally, would not be fielding a candidate to ensure a victory for the opposition party.
“Umno will win for obvious reasons.
“The people are unhappy with PH’s performance. Everything is expensive now and the people are struggling.
“Besides, Anifah has already said he will help the BN candidate and we will work our hardest to get this win.”
Nevertheless, sources in Umno revealed that there is internal fighting between two factions in the party — one side wants a grassroots leader to contest and the other wants Anifah to choose the candidate himself.
The candidate announcement by BN today will see which team has more influence in Umno when it comes to decision-making.
As Kimanis has a large number of Malay and Bumiputera voters, both PH and BN have an equal fighting chance, provided they choose the candidates based on the “complete package” that electorates want.
It would be a bonus if PH could promise a ministerial portfolio for its candidate as this could further empower Sabahans at the federal level.
However, sources within PH revealed that this would not be the case if the candidate comes from Warisan.
“Warisan is not a formal partner in PH and they already have a number of people in the cabinet. It is not fair to give them another position in Putrajaya unless they are part of us officially,” said the source.
Also of note were claims by sources in both PH and BN that there are already elements of sabotage within their respective parties.
If this continues, the Kimanis polls will present entertaining and nail-biting moments throughout the 14-day campaigning period.