THE FALL of the Barisan Nasional (BN) government, the demise of the Pakatan Harapan (PH) rule and the emergence of the Perikatan Nasional (PN) administration were strategic dynamics in Malaysian politics.
BN's defeat on May 9, 2018 reflected the strategic attitude of Malaysian voters who had zero tolerance on government with records on abuse of power and corruption.
PH's abrupt demise on Feb 24, 2020 was a strategic sign that a government with negligible conscience on Malaysia's societal security was not favoured by the Peribumi (Bumiputera) as the country's core nation and major population.
PN's unprecedented emergence on March 1, 2020 was a strategic move to reinstate a government with satisfactory records on societal management like BN and which possesses a firm commitment on good governance like PH.
The above are findings from a one-year research on Malaysian politics in the pre-GE14 and post-GE14 era to ascertain the reasons to the fall of BN, the demise of PH and the emergence of PN. BN inherited from Perikatan, its predecessor, a genuine spirit of Malaysian social contract, democratic power sharing approach and race-based politics for all Malaysians.
It also possessed a comparatively good record on nation-building based on societal management, national solidarity, national resilience and national unity. However, BN in the post-Mahathir era was weakening due to alleged nepotism, abuse of power and corruption in high places which negated the above records.
It resulted in BN's defeat in Kedah, Penang, Perak and Selangor; won with a thin majority in Negeri Sembilan; and retained a slim majority at the parliamentary level in GE12. BN which maintained a slightly better performance in the GE13 was severely defeated in the GE14 due to alleged poor record on governance.
PH rose to power based on its firm commitment on good governance being securitised by the Malaysian public, NGOs and opposition parties since the so-called 1MDB scandal.
Its collective mission of struggle, however, ended soon after winning the GE14. Beyond that, PH became a political coalition in disarray and a government with sliding legitimacy and mounting trust deficit.
These were aggravated by the emergence of the Anwar factor and the DAP factor in the PH government and coalition.
PKR was seen more focused on its mission to crown Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim as Malaysian prime minister. DAP was allegedly pre-occupied with its Malaysian Malaysia politics to re-set the country's "nation-building directions and policies" based on meritocracy.
Bersatu with its Peribumi-Muslim agenda was pressured "by PH supporters" to transformed itself into a multiracial party. Amanah as a Muslim-based party was just blowing in the uncharted wind of change with unwavering loyalty to PKR and DAP.
PKR and DAP, which collectively controlled the biggest PH seats in Malaysian Parliament, also suffered from a psychological superiority syndrome as reflected in how some of their leaders had treated Bersatu and Dr Mahathir as the Prime Minister.
One PKR lawmaker accused Dr Mahathir of a conspiracy to deprive Anwar of the premiership and a DAP assemblyman subtly pressured Bersatu to leave the PH government.
Certain DAP leaders also started their subtle Malaysian Malaysia politics by alleging the Peribumis as immigrants (pendatang) and attempting to equate Bahasa Malaysia with other languages in PH government's official business.
One senior DAP leader even issued an indirect ultimatum that the party and its ministers would leave PH if the objective of the undefined New Malaysia "was abandoned" by the PH administration.
The above had triggered anger and frustration within Bersatu leadership at all levels, and motivated the party to untangle its association with PKR, DAP and PH to save its own survival in the GE15.
BERSATU started on its exit plan from PH since the first quarter of 2019. This was implicitly mentioned in an analysis by Datuk Wan Saiful Wan Jan (2020), was indicated in a statement by Datuk Seri Hamzah Zainuddin (March 29, 2020), and hinted in speculative news reports in Suara Merdeka (May 30, 2020) and Zaini Hassan (Oct 9, 2019);
The existence of this exit plan was further verified by at least five Bersatu insiders who said it was aimed at saving "the country, the party and the Peribumi" in the context of a multiracial Malaysia.
Although this plan was hindered by several unintended consequences, it was fully executed after the sudden resignation of Dr Mahathir on Feb 24, 2020. The fall of PH, therefore, was not caused by betrayal, treachery or sabotage. Bersatu had 'revolted' to punish PH for its insensitivity to the fate of Peribumi.
As such, PN is considered as the reincarnation of BN with a satisfactory track record of societal management and of PH with undivided commitment to good governance.
The writer is an analyst of strategic and security issues, and was a member of parliament for Parit Sulong, Johor, 1990-2003