ISRAEL has inflicted an immense blow on Hamas by killing the Palestinian group's chief Yahya Sinwar, but whether his death will bring the end of the Gaza war any closer is unclear.
Israel had been hunting Sinwar since the Oct 7, 2023, attacks that he masterminded. Israeli leaders called the 61-year-old a "dead man walking".
Coming soon after the killing attributed to Israel of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Teheran, Sinwar's death leaves Hamas facing a leadership vacuum and a strategy dilemma.
Sinwar was seen as an intransigent figure who preferred military solutions to political ones.
After hailing Sinwar's death, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu swiftly warned the war "is not over yet" while also offering to spare Hamas fighters who laid down their weapons or freed Oct 7 hostages.
David Khalfa, a Middle East expert at the Jean-Jaures Foundation, a Paris think-tank, called the death a "very hard" blow that would have a "psychological" impact on Hamas.
"Sinwar was much feared, including within the movement. He was Teheran's man," said Khalfa, referring to his strong ties with Iran's leaders.
Elliot Abrams, a senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, said the death "may be a game changer".
"He seems to have been unwilling to negotiate," he said. "We're in for a period of confusion because, who is in charge now?"
The war has already taken an immense toll. The Oct 7 attack re-sulted in the deaths of 1,206 people in Israel, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally that includes hostages killed in captivity.
Of the 251 people abducted, 97 are still being held in Gaza, and 34 have been declared dead by the Israeli army.
Israel's retaliatory military offensive in Gaza has killed 42,438 people, a majority of them civilians, according to the territory's Health Ministry. The United Nations says the figures are reliable.
Michael Horowitz, an expert at the Middle East-based security consultancy Le Beck, said Sinwar's death would feel "personal" for many Israelis as well as Netanyahu, who had made killing Sinwar a part of his "total victory" strategy. But Horowitz warned that Hamas would not "disappear unless it is replaced by an alternative".
"The Israeli government has so far taken no step to help foster an alternative to Hamas."
Eva Koulouriotis, a political analyst specialising in the Middle East, said she expects Hamas to change policy.
"Sinwar was not a politician and did not believe in political solutions," she said.
"His top priority was to develop the militia's military capabilities."
Analysts believe Sinwar's death could facilitate the resumption of negotiations on a ceasefire and hostage release.
Israel and Hamas have blamed each other for the failure to end the fighting, free hostages and allow aid into Gaza.
"I think it's more likely that a deal can now be done. The pressure on the Israelis to do a deal would also grow," said Abrams.
Relatives of Israelis held by Hamas, the Hostages Families Forum, urged Netanyahu to leverage "this major achievement into an immediate deal to secure hostages' return".
And United States President Joe Biden had more power than other leaders to pressure Israel, he said.
"The US will certainly be engaged in discussions now about, what comes next," he said, but added that the next stages are uncertain.
"Who is going to govern Gaza, who is going to provide security in Gaza? If there's a ceasefire, that question becomes more immediate, more insistent."
Critics say Netanyahu, who opposes the creation of a Palestinian state, does not have a post-war strategy.
Khalfa said it is "a credible hypothesis" that Netanyahu could declare Hamas defeated and envisage an end to the war.
But he cautioned that some Netanyahu allies in Israel would like to press ahead with the fighting.
"His death may be an opportunity to change the dynamic, as talks have been at an impasse for weeks since the escalation in Lebanon and even before," Horowitz said.
"The question is whether the Israeli government will seize this opportunity, and whether Sinwar will be replaced by someone with different views," he added.
But if his brother Mohammed Sinwar, also a leader wanted by Israel, replaces him, he might not have different positions, said Horowitz.
The writers are from AFP