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Malaysia must be proactive in facing US election uncertainty

Regardless of one's sentiments toward the United States, the outcome of its presidential election will affect us.

Each presidential election has global repercussions, including the Indo-Pacific, where economic and security ties with the US are significant.

There are, firstly, trade and investment implications. The US is Malaysia's third-largest trading partner (after Asean and China), with bilateral trade in 2022 exceeding US$63 billion.

Malaysian exports — especially electronics, machinery and palm oil — depend on access to American markets.

A potential Kamala Harris administration is expected to maintain current policies that emphasise multilateralism, a stance that could benefit Malaysian exports and strengthen trade relations with the US.

Conversely, if Donald Trump were to return to the presidency, unpredictability might characterise US-Malaysia economic relations. Trump's "America First" doctrine could resurface, indicating a revival of protectionist trade policies.

Although Trump's focus on confronting China could indirectly favour Malaysia as an alternative manufacturing hub, trade tensions could destabilise the regional supply chain, affecting investment flows and manufacturing confidence.

Malaysia's technology sector has a lot at stake in the US election. Harris would likely continue policies aimed at stabilising global supply chains and diversifying tech investments away from China, positioning Malaysia as a reliable manufacturing hub in Southeast Asia.

However, a Trump victory complicates the picture. China's technology industry anticipates harsher restrictions and sanctions under Trump, with Chinese think tanks warning that his erratic style could lead to increased tariffs and occasional reprieves.

Malaysia, an emerging semi-conductor player, could be indirectly impacted by Trump's clampdown on Chinese firms like Huawei and SMIC.

While Trump's intensified restrictions might open more doors for Malaysian tech exports, his unpredictable unilateralism risks creating new, fragmented supply chains that could challenge Malaysia's role in regional trade.

With tensions simmering in the Indo-Pacific, the US election also holds significant implications for regional security. Malaysia's position in the South China Sea, where China's assertiveness has grown, demands careful diplomatic balancing.

A Harris administration would likely maintain the US policy of containment through alliance-building and support for regional security. This approach aligns with Malaysia's preference for multilateral frameworks like Asean, allowing it to safeguard its neutrality while benefiting from a US presence that counterbalances China.

Trump's return, however, may revive a transactional and unilateral foreign policy. His lack of commitment to traditional alliances could push Malaysia into a challenging diplomatic position.

Southeast Asian countries, including Malaysia, would likely face pressure from Trump to align more closely with the US against China, especially in maritime disputes. But these are just conjectures: the only thing predictable about Trump's policies is unpredictability.

Regardless of the election outcome, Malaysia's leadership under Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim will need to be agile and proactive in preparing for upcoming challenges.

From securing trade flows and fostering technology partnerships to balancing diplomatic relationships, the stakes are high.

Maintaining Malaysia's longstanding neutrality while maximising its economic and strategic benefits in a shifting landscape will require skilful diplomacy.

In terms of economic resilience, Malaysia has been proactive by diversifying its export markets, particularly within Asean, the Middle East and Africa.

As part of its long-term strategy, Malaysia is increasingly looking towards BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) as one of the ways to cushion itself from unpredictable US policies.

While the US remains a vital partner, Malaysia's recent interest in joining BRICS demonstrates its intention to diversify economic ties, broaden its global trade portfolio and reduce reliance on traditional Western markets.

However, this shift is part of a long-term vision. For now, Malaysia is aware of the importance of the US in sectors like technology and finance.

The US election is a stark reminder of Thucydides' warning: "the strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must".

In a world still governed by the ebb and flow of superpower politics, Malaysia faces the challenge of navigating increasingly fluid and unpredictable global dynamics.

Ultimately, it is this agility — this readiness to pivot in response to global changes — that will ensure Malaysia's survival and security in the years to come.


* The writer is an administrative and diplomatic officer and a Khazanah-OXCIS scholar with an MSt in diplomatic studies from Kellogg College, University of Oxford

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