THE past week has certainly been rough on people across much of eastern North America.
The Weather Network reported on Nov 13 that “Toronto, Hamilton, and Ottawa airports all set new record lows on Wednesday morning, as temperatures dipped into the minus teens, blasting past records set in 1986”.
All this is just a warning of what is yet to come this winter, according to the Farmers’ Almanac which provides long-range weather predictions for both Canada and the US.
The Almanac based its predictions on more than two centuries of experience in meteorology, climatology and mathematical models.
Almanac managing editor Peter Geiger summed it up: “We’re using a very strong four-letter word to describe this winter, which is C-O-L-D. It’s going to be very cold.”
According to the Almanac, which has been reliable in recent winter forecasts, the Northern (US) Plains and Great Lakes area could expect temperatures dropping to -40 degrees Celsius.
Yet the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s climate body (Goddard Institute for Space Studies or GISS, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration or NOAA), predict that the 2019-2020 winter will be warmer than usual.
NOAA wrote on Oct 17: “Warmer-than-average temperatures are forecast for much of the US this winter... below-average temperatures are not favoured.”
So, who should we believe, the cold winter predicted by the Farmers’ Almanac or the mild one forecast by GISS and NOAA?
The problem with any prognostications from GISS and NOAA is that they are government bodies still controlled by entrenched bureaucrats appointed during previous administrations. They will work to find every way possible to convince the public of the dangerous warming to come.
In contrast, the Farmers’ Almanac has a track record of accuracy in climate forecasting so farmers have long depended on the skill of its seasonal forecasts. These forecasts have to be right. If they are not, farmers who depend on it could suffer significant financial losses and the Almanac would lose financial support from buyers and advertisers. Consequently, the Farmers’ Almanac cannot afford to entertain any political bias whatsoever.
Quite different to the Almanac, GISS and NOAA face no significant consequences for inaccurate forecasts. Those who put their faith in GISS/NOAA forecasts certainly do, however.
So far this year, the Almanac has been right on target. The reason for the present and coming cold is, of course, a weak sun. Recent research indicated that the sun is the primary climate controller.
DR JOEL GLASS
Finland
TOM HARRIS
Canada