KUALA LUMPUR: Key economic indicators show that the Malaysian economy may have expanded faster in February than January, amid the weakest global growth outlook from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in more than 30 years.
Economists at Maybank Investment Banking Group (Maybank IBG) estimated that the country's gross domestic product (GDP) had grown 6.2 per cent year-on-year in February, up from 4.3 per cent in January.
This brings the GDP growth for the first two months of 2023 at 5.3 per cent, which is above the official full-year forecast of 4.0-5.0 per cent and Maybank IBG's 4.0 per cent.
"February 2023 saw firmer growth in Industrial Production Index at 3.6 per cent (January 2023: 1.8 per cent YoY), Distributive Trade Index (Feb 2023: 10.6 per cent YoY; January 2023: 8.5 per cent YoY) and crude palm oil output (February 2023: 10.2 per cent YoY; January 2023: 10.1 per cent YoY).
"Inputting these indicators into our monthly GDP tracker, we estimated monthly GDP grew 6.2 per cent YoY in February 2023,' Maybank IBG said today.
The IMF on Tuesday released its weakest global growth expectations for the medium term in more than three decades.
The Washington-based institution said five years from now, global growth was expected to be around three per cent, the lowest medium-term forecast in an IMF World Economic Outlook report since 1990.
In the short term, the IMF expects global growth of 2.8 per cent this year and 3.0 per cent in 2024, slightly below the fund's estimates published in January.
The new estimates are a cut of 0.1 percentage point for both this year and next.
Analysts at MIDF Reseach believes Malaysia's economy will grow 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 2024, despite the adverse pessimism of the IMF on the global growth prospect.
"We opine the resilient of both job market and softening inflation data are supporting the growth rates," the firm said.
The IMF downgraded several key economies among others Germany, Japan and India.
The fund expects China's economy to enjoy the benefits of economic reopening and positive spill over effects to be spread across the region.
In line with that, the IMF raised Asean-5 forecast from 4.3 per cent to 4.5 per cent for this year.
Meanwhile, Maybank IBG said Malaysia's IPI growth picked up in February on faster growth in manufacturing and electricity amid the decline in mining output.
Manufacturing growth quickened for export-oriented industries such as electronics and electrical products, vegetable and animal oils and fats as well as domestic-oriented industries such as food, beverages and tobacco, non-metallic mineral, basic and fabricated metal products.
Mining output fell on account of lower production of crude oil and condensate, and natural gas.
In contrast, CPO output growth momentum was sustained in February at 10.2 per cent YoY versus 10.1 per cent YoY in January.
Growth in DTI improved in February, boosted by double-digit growth in motor vehicles sales and retail trade, along with pickup in wholesale trade.