ALOR STAR: The ongoing El Nino in Kedah could become the most severe dry spell in the country's history, said a climate expert.
Universiti Utara Malaysia Disaster Management Institute director Dr Chong Khai Lin said weather analysis showed this year's average daily temperature is three degrees Celsius above the norm.
She said while it was still early to if the ongoing current dry spell, which typically spans six to 18 months, is the worst in the country's history, the increase in the average temperature was "concerning".
Chong said during the 2016 El Nino, Langkawi went 27 days without rain.
"This year, Perlis went for 29 days without any rainfall and the global rise in temperature of 0.6 degrees Celsius might lead to a worse scenario," she told the New Straits Times.
"El Nino can result in higher temperatures, reduced rainfall, and transboundary haze if forest fires are not controlled.
"There are water shortage risks, which can impact the agriculture sector and the public."
This is why the public must be better prepared for a prolonged dry spell, including staying up to date with Meteorological Department (MetMalaysia) warnings and conserving water, she said.
State MetMalaysia director Muhammad Khalil Abd Aziz said the dry spell is expected to persist until Ramadan this March.
Despite some recent rain, he forecasted continued dry and warm weather until early April, with temperatures hitting 37 degrees Celsius.
"The weather patterns were due to the late phase of the northeast monsoon, typically characterised by reduced rainfall and high temperatures.
He said that until Feb 27, thunderstorms accompanied by heavy rain and strong winds could occur despite the heat.
"This is particularly in inland and western coastal areas of the peninsular during the afternoon and evening, potentially extending into the early morning hours.
"I want to stress that the final phase of the northeast monsoon, with reduced rainfall, does not mean no rain at all, but rather less compared to other seasons," he added.
Meanwhile, State Agriculture, Plantation and Transport Committee chairman Dzowahir Ab Ghani said that the situation highlights the critical role of efficiently managing and conserving the Ulu Muda forests as vital rain catchment areas.
"Ulu Muda is capable of storing rainwater and serving as a water supply source for the agricultural sector, especially for paddy cultivation.
"It not only supplies water for agriculture but also significantly contributes to the domestic and industrial water needs of neighboring states, such as Perlis and Penang," he added.
He said there is a need for holistic management of Ulu Muda forest reserves as a protected area to ensure the sustainability of the country's food security.
"Beyond serving as a rain catchment and forest reserve area, Ulu Muda is also a habitat for a diverse range of flora and fauna," he added.