WILL Barisan Nasional’s move in selecting Ramli Mohd Nor as its candidate for the Cameron Highlands by-election prove to be a masterstroke? Or will the move backfire?
The selection of Ramli, who was the highest ranking Orang Asli policeman before his retirement last year, has been described as a bold move. Many, including Pakatan Harapan leaders, had expected BN to field a ‘recycled’ candidate or a familiar face in the polls.
BN, following a string of defeats in recent by-elections, was all too aware of the significance of this by-election, the first to be held in a BN-held state following GE14. A defeat could spell disaster for the former ruling coalition.
BN party insiders said Pahang Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Wan Rosdy Wan Ismail faced a tough time convincing BN's top leadership, including MIC, that Ramli is the party's winnable candidate. The coalition had earlier planned to allow MIC contest the seat it had been winning since 2004.
"Naming a recycled candidate or senior party member (to contest the seat) would have allowed their opponent (PH) to study and dig up the respective individual's past. We do not see people (during campaign) sharing or posting controversial remarks about Ramli, his past (during his days as a policeman) or sharing political-related matters on him.
"Many see him as someone clean with high integrity. He had nothing to do with BN's defeat during the 14th general election, 1MDB issues or with political figures until the day he was named as the party's candidate for the by-election," said the source.
Unlike during GE14, when the selection of BN candidates appeared politically-motivated, the source said Ramli appeared to embody the term “winnable local candidate” as he is well-liked by the people despite lacking experience.
Universiti Putra Malaysia political analyst Dr Syed Agil Syed Alsagoff described the selection of the Cameron Highlands native as something unique, which could lead to a new type of voting trend in the parliamentary constituency.
He said since Malays and Orang Asli make up the majority of voters at 54 percent, they might prefer a local candidate and a fresh face to shoulder the responsibility of representing them in parliament.
"BN did their homework before naming Ramli, who has a clean record. Based on previous by-elections, we noticed a trend of voters preferring a local or someone close to the grassroots. Whenever there are issues or controversies (plaguing the PH government), voters tend to support the opposition as a mark of protest.”
Meanwhile, Prof Dr Nik Ahmad Kamal Nik Mahmood, a political analyst and law lecturer from International Islamic University, said fence-sitters would likely give their votes to Ramli.
"It’s a good strategy. The Malays in Felda schemes will vote for BN along with Pas, and the Orang Asli could be the king makers, and since the candidate is one of them, they will still have faith in BN.
"The Indian and Chinese votes will go to PH but there is a slim chance of the Orang Asli supporting PH. I guess the margin of votes will be similar to the last general election," he told New Straits Times.
Meanwhile, there are also concerns within the PH camp of their candidate M. Manogaran's chances at the polls following controversies plaguing the coalition during campaigning.
A PKR insider said the blunders, including the ‘kuih’ remark by Manogaran, Bob Manolan's "threat" to Orang Asli village chiefs and alleged use of government vehicle might have irked a segment of voters.
"There has been minimal damage control from PH. Tanah Rata is seen as a PH stronghold but our concern is in Jelai, where the party's machinery has been giving extra focus. Sadly, some of our (PH) events saw very low turnouts and we are unsure if the machinery have been doing their job on the ground.
"We need to have a firm stand on certain matters concerning roads in Orang Asli settlements and the new generation of Felda homes and stop beating around the bush. When
we highlight a certain issue (in by-election) it is not just about exposing it but also identifying suitable solutions.
“Manogaran is going all out to win but the people around him must not ruin his chances (of winning)," he said.