Politics

11 seats may decide Kedah outcome

The grand battle for Kedah is expected to go down to the wire although Pas-led Perikatan Nasional is seen as having a slight advantage in securing a simple majority of 19 seats to retain the state.

Towards the final day of the two-week campaign, 11 seats have been identified as the toughest battlegrounds that will decide whether PN retains the state or the Pakatan Harapan-Barisan Nasional coalition springs a surprise.

The 11 seats are Bukit Kayu Hitam; Pedu; Alor Mengkudu; Suka Menanti; Sungai Tiang; Guar Chempedak; Pantai Merdeka; Gurun; Ayer Hangat; Kuah and Bukit Selambau.

PH is expected to retain the six seats it won in the last state election, held simultaneously with the 14th General Election (GE14) five years ago.

Three of the seats — Kulim, Bakar Arang and Sidam — were won by PKR, while DAP took Derga and Kota Darul Aman and Parti Amanah Negara came out victorious in Kota Siputeh.

Among the seats PN is expected to retain are Ayer Hitam; Bandar Baharu; Kuala Nerang; Bukit Pinang; Bukit Lada; Pengkalan Kundor; Tokai, Sungai Limau; Belantik; Jeneri; Tanjung Dawai; Bayu; Kupang; Kuala Ketil; Merbau Pulas; Anak Bukit; and, Jitra.

The coalition is also expected to wrest Kubang Rotan from Amanah; Lunas from PKR.

The situation towards the end of the campaign period, however, was in stark contrast with the initial belief that PN would easily secure a two-thirds majority following the thumping victory in Kedah in GE15.

PN had almost made a clean sweep of the parliamentary seats in the state after winning all but one of the 15 on offer, losing only in Sungai Petani, which was retained by PH.

Despite entering the battle as the underdog, the combination of the PH-BN machinery, backed by the frequent presence of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and his cabinet members, have pushed PN out of its comfort zone after two weeks of campaigning.

Then there is the issue of the theft of rare earth elements (REE) in Sik, played up by Home Minister Datuk Seri Saifuddin Nasution Ismail.

That may have no impact on Pas' loyal supporters, but Saifuddin's main target was perhaps to swing the support of fence-sitters away from Sanusi.

The fierce objection against PN's choice of candidates in Ayer Hangat, Kuah and Kota Siputeh have also given PH-BN a renewed hope of mounting a strong challenge.

This has led to PN chairman Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin and Pas top guns descending on Langkawi, while PH-BN heavyweights, including Anwar, have also made a beeline to the island to woo support for the unity coalition candidates.

Caretaker Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor's popularity among Kedahans so far has seen him able to fend off the relentless assault of the well-oiled PH-BN machinery.

Generally, the sentiment among the young voters residing in Kedah is with PN but the coalition will need the support of outstation voters to seal its victory.

Pas secretary-general Datuk Seri Takiyuddin Hassan's announcement on Thursday that Sanusi, who is also PN election director, would be retained as menteri besar should PN retain the seat was seen as a move to seal the support of the fence-sitters.

PH-BN, on the other hand, will be depending on Umno voters' turn out to tip the balance of support by fence-sitters towards PN.

Much may depend also on young voters aged between 19 and 39, especially since they make up over half of the 1.58 million eligible voters in Kedah.

They will be kingmakers in this state election, similar to what happened in GE15.

This state election, however, is a different ball game altogether and PN would risk losing the state should it overly rely on the wave of support enjoyed by the coalition in GE15.

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