THE invasion of Ukraine should not have happened. Of this we are clear. Russia bears much of the responsibility for this. But let's be clear, too, of the responsibility of the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) for prolonging the war.
The reason the Ukraine war is 141 days old is not because Russia thinks a war of attrition is in its interest. It is because the US and Nato think a long war will force the Russians to topple President Vladimir Putin.
A long war in Ukraine also serves another purpose: a clear and present warning to, in the reading of the US and Nato, an ambitious and aggressive China. This is a tragic mistake. Here is why. Firstly, a long war will exhaust the West first before it does Russia.
The Ukraine war isn't a battle between two countries. It is effectively a war between Russia and 31 countries. This notwithstanding, Russia is gaining ground in the East.
Fissures are already developing within Nato members as the financial burden of funding the Ukraine war and the economic pain of Russian sanctions begin to bite.
The cracks within the West aren't just about the billions of dollars the US and the EU are throwing into the war. They are also rift-causing tales of spiking inflation and living costs. The West thought its punishing sanctions would visit nasty economic pain on Russia, but they have brought more pain on itself. "Think before you leap" is good advice in geopolitics, too.
Secondly, a growing number of countries, not just Russia and China, are beginning to see Nato in its true light. It is no longer a defensive military alliance. As it expands eastwards and into the Asia-Pacific region, it is becoming an offensive economic alliance as well.
The US and Nato are helping the East to be wary of the West. What a strategic blunder this is. And this is driving many countries to form alliances with Russia and China, our third reason. Iran is a recent example. After constant bullying by the US, the European Union and Israel, Teheran finds more to be gained in a Moscow-friendly foreign policy.
A phone call to Putin by Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in February was very revealing: "Nato expansion is a serious threat to the stability and security of independent countries in different regions." Iran and Russia are set to get closer when Putin visits Teheran on Tuesday, just days after US President Joe Biden's visit to Israel and Saudi Arabia.
The West's Nato strategy is a tragic mistake in a fourth sense. It is making an already ambitious and aggressive China more so. The West may not feel the immediate impact of China's ambition and aggression but the littoral states of Southeast Asia dotting the disputed South China Sea and members of the Pacific islands will.
Sure enough, on Monday, China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned countries in the region not to allow themselves to be used as pawns by big powers. We take that advice to apply to China as well. The
West, so far removed from the waters of the South China Sea, is muddying them. Big powers, be they from the West or East, have an Abraham Maslow problem. Armed with only hammers, they see all small powers as mere nails.