A United Nations climate report released in October had a dire warning for world leaders: do nothing and the Earth will warm, in just a few years, to 3.1°C above pre-industrial levels. And doing something means an immediate mobilisation of climate action on a scale and pace never done before ahead of the next national climate pledge to be submitted in February.
The report must be read to be directed chiefly at G20 countries which are responsible for 80 per cent of global emissions.
Malaysians know only too well what a warm Earth means. We are just out of a series of floods last month caused by higher than usual sea surface temperatures that led to exceptional rainfall and flooding. One month's rain in five days certainly qualifies to be tagged exceptional. If that was the first wave of continuous monsoon rains, the second wave — now on — is expected to last until Dec 16, warns the Malaysian Meteorological Department.
Add to this, the caution of the international climate observation agencies that this year is set to be the warmest year on record, possibly the first 12 months to breach the 1.5°C target. The takeaway here is: renewable energy must get ahead of fossil fuels.
Is the world out of time to decarbonise? That depends on what G20 nations do. Two of the 20 will do for our purpose.
Begin with Beijing, the biggest contributor to the world's annual emissions. According to the Financial Times climate database, China was responsible for 26.57 per cent of the world's annual emissions, having produced 12.8 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) in 2021. This is because of the country's heavy reliance on coal despite renewable energy recording 29 per cent in China's energy mix.
The United States, the world's largest economy, comes in next with its contribution of 11.56 per cent to the world's annual emissions, having added 5.6 billion tonnes of CO2e in 2021. This is due to fossil fuels making up 61 per cent of the US' energy mix. In its climate pledge in April 2021, Washington promised to reduce net emissions by 50 to 52 per cent by 2030 compared with 2005 levels.
Will this happen? Unlikely, with "drill baby, drill" President-elect Donald Trump weeks away from entering the Oval Office. Expect Trump to roll back taxes on energy firms, bumping up production.
A petro-boom may be in the making, with onshore and offshore blocks scheduled to be opened up, some analysts predict. Not unexpected, coming as it does under the reign of one who considers climate change a fiction.
But still, climate action isn't just a G20 thing. All 193 nations must collectively cut emissions by 42 per cent by 2030 and by 57 per cent by 2035 from 2019 levels. Even at 2°C, it is a climate calamity of gargantuan proportions, particularly for vulnerable countries.
COP29, hosted last month by Azerbaijan in Baku, failed them by not agreeing on concrete measures to arrest the production of fossil fuels. Will COP30, to be held in Belem in Brazil in November, curb the growth of fossil fuels? For sure, the future hasn't happened, but the past tells us that we would be condemned to hope again.