AS the Myanmar crisis nears its third year, it is fast becoming clear that Asean is incapable of resolving it.
The shameful truth is this: the very-divided 10-member Southeast Asian bloc, of which Myanmar is a member, knows this. Indonesia, Asean's chair this year, admitted as much at an Asean event last Tuesday in Jakarta: Asean needs political will to bring the Myanmar crisis to an end.
This an admission of a long-recognised brutal fact by Asean-watchers: the bloc has been paralysed since the coup was mounted by Myanmar's military in February 2021. However much Asean may want the world to believe that its "quiet diplomacy" is keeping the bloc united, the truth is otherwise.
It has been one weak response after another following meetings in almost every capital of Southeast Asia as the Asean chair changed hands. The worst was Cambodia's then leader Hun Sen, who as chair of the bloc last year, travelled to Naypyidaw, in defiance of the majority's wishes, to meet coup leader Senior General Min Aung Hlaing.
He could not have done worse. He tried to force the rest of the bloc to bring the general back to the fold of Asean, which had barred him from its meetings. If Hun Sen thought his wayward approach would entice Min Aung Hlaing into mending his brutal ways, it didn't work. In fact, the atrocities worsened.
News agency AFP quoted the United Nations' Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar (IIMM) as saying last Tuesday that it had evidence that the country's military and affiliated militias were "committing increasingly frequent and brazen war crimes".
Among the surging war crimes IIMM listed were indiscriminate aerial bombardments, the burning of villages, mass killings of civilians and detained combatants, as well as torture and horrific sexual violence. Yet Asean thinks its five-point peace plan, ironically tagged "consensus", will work.
The peace plan has yellowed beyond recognition as the coup nears its third year. This is false confidence. Indonesian President Joko Widodo's statement last Tuesday about Asean needing "political will" is a diplomatic way of saying that the bloc lacks unity.
Cambodia has led the way to disunity. Sadly for Asean, Phnom Penh isn't the only errant member. There are a couple more. What is worse, there are a few fence-sitter countries which tear the bloc into inaction.
A great danger is approaching, which will have an impact on the future of Asean as an effective regional bloc. It may or may not realise this, but the success or failure of Asean's peace plan for Myanmar will also spell the success or failure of Asean.
The prognosis thus far isn't encouraging. Analysts are beginning to reach an alarming consensus: Asean cannot do anything right. A pathetic organisation, is one analyst's verdict. A very harsh choice of word, but not inaccurate.
Min Aung Hlaing has been close to three years in power since the coup that deposed democratically elected leader Aung San Suu Kyi and her cabinet members, saying that he has been implementing his own peace plan.
Asean knows this to be not true, and yet it has allowed the murderous general the space to go on committing serious international crimes. There is only one way to save Myanmar.
Asean must summon the missing political will to expel Myanmar until it mends its ways. Saving Myanmar means saving Asean.