Malaysia is developing a bulge. And not quite in the right place. The population of working-age adults is fast giving way to the ageing and the aged as fertility rates go south.
This has some colossal economic and social significance for the country, just to use the language of ageing-nation watchers. And most certainly for the oldsters, who will face the demographic decline.
No wonder it is called a demographic crisis. It is arguable that we could have planned for this. But rhetoric of academic nature does no one any good. It is best to acknowledge the scale of the problem and try doing something about it, as we are beginning to do now.
First things first. Do we know when Malaysia will become an ageing, aged and super-aged nation, the three shades of grey that the United Nations applies?
Yes, we do: now, 2043, 2064 or thereabouts. Do we know where the bulge is developing? Yes, we know this, too.
Last year, the Statistics Department identified eight districts where the bulk of the bulge is developing. Kelantan and Penang got a special mention, with two districts each: Kota Baru and Kuala Krai for the former and Seberang Prai Utara and Barat Daya for the latter.
Hulu Selangor, Johor Baru, Kota Kinabalu and Miri complete the department's list. But that doesn't mean policymakers should just focus on the eight districts. They should adopt a whole-nation approach. Because there is no stopping others elsewhere in the country from ageing.
Let's take the economic impact of ageing to a nation like Malaysia. A shrinking workforce and all that it implies would arguably be the biggest headache for the country.
As more and more Malaysians hit 60, many will go into retirement because our law requires so. This isn't just a regional low, but a global one, too. They needn't.
It will be a shame to let go of people with such a stock of knowledge and experience of over 30 years at least. Laws must be changed to allow those who are willing and able to continue into their "second" working life.
To some extent this will arrest the drag on labour productivity. To this can be added a second cure — imported labour — though this comes attached with social problems. If it is treated as a stop-gap measure, it can be managed.
Malaysia's agriculture sector is in desperate need of such foreign muscle, as greying bodies retire from farms, orchards and plantations. Public healthcare will be a burden, too. Already it is stretched to its limit with understaffing and overcrowding.
Social consequences of a fast ageing Malaysia isn't too far away either. Low-wage Malaysia, still stuck at a minimum salary of RM1,500, has a retirement income security problem.
This can only get worse with many Malaysians shifting to informal employment through gig work. With no to little mandatory contributions to formal retirement or pension schemes, the current estimate of four million informal workers will be at risk of facing post-retirement poverty.
This number will only grow. Policymakers must act now, not just to arrest poverty but to find ways to let Malaysia age in a good way.