Great power rivalry
The rivalry between the United States and China, particularly in the context of the South China Sea and the Straits of Malacca, can be seen through the lens of ancient Roman insights into power.
In this case, consider Cicero's reflections on the strategic importance of maritime dominance.
Cicero, the illustrious Roman statesman, recognised the profound impact of controlling the seas on a nation's ability to project power, secure trade routes, and assert military dominance. This idea - encapsulated in the modern distillation "He who rules the sea rules the world" - is strikingly relevant to the contemporary geopolitical landscape, where the contest for naval and economic control is at the heart of U.S.-China rivalry.
In this new era of great power competition, often described as a "New Cold War," the South China Sea and the Straits of Malacca have become strategic chokepoints in the struggle for dominance.
The South China Sea, rich in resources and traversed by vital shipping lanes, is a flashpoint where China's assertive territorial claims clash with the interests of the United States and its allies.
For China, asserting control over this maritime region is about securing its economic lifelines and extending its military reach, much like the Romans saw naval dominance as key to their empire's security and prosperity.
The Straits of Malacca, one of the world's busiest maritime passages, further underscores the strategic significance of naval control.
Whoever controls these waters has a critical influence over global trade, particularly the flow of energy supplies from the Middle East to East Asia.
The U.S. and China are acutely aware of this, and their rivalry in these regions mirrors the historical importance Cicero and the Romans placed on maritime power.
For small states like Malaysia, caught in the crosshairs of this great power rivalry, the challenge is navigating these turbulent waters without being subsumed by either side.
Malaysia, employing what could be termed "Kancil Diplomacy," akin to Cicero's political navigation of the Roman Republic's dangerous intrigues, must carefully balance its relationships with both the U.S. and China.
By engaging economically with China while maintaining security ties with the U.S., Malaysia seeks to protect its sovereignty and national interests without overtly aligning witheither superpower.
This delicate balancing act is reminiscent of Cicero's own political strategy during the late Roman Republic, where he had to manoeuver through alliances and rivalries to safeguard his position and influence.
Cicero's emphasis on ethics, civic duty, and the prudent exercise of power offers a timeless lesson for small states today: the importance of strategic agility and the ability to leverage both rhetoric and realpolitik in the face of overwhelming external pressures.
In essence, the U.S.-China rivalry and the contest for control over critical maritime regions like the South China Sea and the Straits of Malacca are modern echoes of the ancient struggles for naval dominance that Cicero would have recognised.
As this "New Cold War" unfolds, the strategies and lessons from the past continue to resonate, illustrating the enduring truth that the control of the seas is still a defining element of global power.
Small states, much like Cicero in the Roman Republic, must navigate these dynamics with wisdom and foresight to maintain their sovereignty and influence.
Climate change and arctic shipping routes
The opening of Arctic shipping routes is one of those unexpected twists in the global climate change saga, revealing just how interconnected and unpredictable our world has become.
As the Arctic ice melts, these new maritime pathways are shaking up global trade, offering significantly shorter routes between Southeast Asia and Europe.
Imagine shaving off about 30 per cent of the distance on a journey from Shanghai to Rotterdam—this isn't just a minor efficiency gain; it's a game-changer.
Russia, with its Northern Sea Route, is poised to become a big winner, charging transit fees and expanding its influence over these waters.
For China, these routes are a key piece in its "Polar Silk Road" strategy, reducing its reliance on the Suez Canal and the Straits of Malacca while speeding up trade with Europe.
The melting Arctic ice is doing more than just raising sea levels—it's rewriting the global trade map in ways that would have stunned even Cicero.
For Russia, this is a golden opportunity.
With its extensive Arctic coastline, Moscow is positioning itself as the gatekeeper of the Northeast Passage, investing heavily in ports and icebreakers to capitalise on this new maritime highway.
China, eyeing the Arctic as a crucial part of its "Polar Silk Road," stands to benefit from faster access to European markets and the untapped resources of the Arctic, from oil to minerals.
Meanwhile, shipping companies that adapt to these changes could see major cost savings and efficiencies.
But as always, when some win, others lose.
Singapore, a major hub at the gateway to the Straits of Malacca, might find its role in global shipping diminished, as moretraffic diverts northward.
The Suez Canal, too, could see fewer ships passing through its waters, which would hit Egypt where it hurts—in the pocketbook.
And then there's the environment: the Arctic's fragile ecosystem, already on the brink due to warming temperatures, faces new threats from increased shipping traffic, oil spills, and pollution.
Polar bears and other wildlife could suffer as their habitat is further disrupted, and indigenous communities who've lived in harmony with this environment for centuries might see their way of life upended.
Reshuffling of the global power deck
Geopolitically, the Arctic is becoming the new frontline in the great power rivalry between the U.S., China, and Russia, echoing the ancient Roman insight that "he who rules the sea rules the world."
Russia's control over the Northern Sea Route gives it significant leverage, while China is eagerly positioning itself as a player in this frozen frontier, despite being far from an Arctic nation.
Meanwhile, countries in Southeast Asia, especially Singapore, might need to rethink their strategies.
Ideas like the Kra Isthmus Canal or a land bridge across Thailand could gain new traction as these nations seek to stay relevant in a shifting global trade landscape.
But let's not forget the most sobering aspect of this development: it's a direct result of global warming, and the environmental risks are enormous.
The Arctic may offer economic opportunities, but they come at a steep cost to the planet.
This is climate change at its most ironic—unlocking new possibilities while simultaneously threatening the very ecosystems that make those possibilities possible.
It's a stark reminder that in our increasingly interconnected world, the consequences of our actions ripple out in ways we're only beginning to understand.
As the Arctic opens up, the world will have to navigate not just new shipping routes, but a new geopolitical landscape where the rules of the game are being rewritten in real time.
It's about a reshuffling of the global power deck that could leave some winners and many losers.
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Economist Samirul Ariff Othman is an adjunct lecturer at Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS (UTP), international relations analyst and a senior consultant with Global Asia Consulting (GAC). Samirul has a background as a senior researcher at the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research. The viewpoints articulated are solely those of the author.