KUALA LUMPUR: THE probe into the Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 tragedy in Ukraine is expected to be a long-drawn affair, which may take up to three years, experts suggest.
Universiti Kuala Lumpur research and innovation head Associate Professor Captain Dr Mohd Harridon Mohamed Suffian said the long duration was because of the tedious and meticulous reconstruction process of mapping and joining the debris in the hangar.
“It is also due to the comprehensive analysis of the black box with the involvement of many parties. Hence, on average, it takes between two and three years for a complete investigation to be carried out,” he told the New Straits Times yesterday.
Harridon said the investigation would normally be led by the agency of the country where the crash occurred.
“In this case, it’s the Ukraine Aviation Agency.
“But, since the crash site is controlled by rebels, it is advisable that a joint authorisation (including MAS, Department of Civil Aviation, Boeing, National Transportation Safety Board, Federal Aviation Agency, Dutch Aviation Agency, European Aviation Safety Agency, Russian Aviation Agency) lead the investigation.”
Harridon said the identification, or the appointment, of a lead organisation would take place after a crash, followed by the appointments of joint authorisation of several parties. The appointments would be in accordance with the procedures set by the International Civil Aviation Organisation, he said.
“The crash site would be gated so that intruders cannot converge in the area as we do not want any contamination of the site.
“The debris and components at the crash site would then be mapped and catalogued, and the distance from one debris to another would be measured to calculate the impact of the crash.
“The debris on the ground would be photographed and sent to a lab for thorough analysis of the crash site. The remains of the passengers and crews would also be collected for identification.
“The debris and components of the aircraft would then be put in a hangar, or a big hall, for reconstruction purposes. This is akin to joining jigsaws to solve the puzzle.”
Harridon said the black box, which consists of the Flight Data Recorder (FDR) and Cockpit Voice Recorder (CVR), would be searched.
The FDR held around 200 parameters of the flight, which would indicate the last position and heading of the aircraft and the amount of impact of the missile.
The CVR held the last conversations in the cockpit and would tell if there was a conversation on the change of the flight route.
“The analysis from the black box would be compared with the analysis from the debris and components at the crash site. Both analyses should be consistent.
“It is not good if the analysis from the black box shows a different story from the analysis of the debris and components at the crash site,” he said, stressing the importance of evidences at the crash site to not be tampered with.
Harridon said it was vital to have eyewitness reports at the two impacts points: the first impact “on air”, when the missile hits the aircraft during flight, and the second impact “on the ground” when the fuselage hits the ground.
During these impacts, debris scatter in numerous directions. Thus, eyewitness account is vital to lead investigators to places where debris are located.
“It is crucial for us to map the trajectories of the debris during both impacts as this would tell us to some degree what kind of missile had hit the aircraft.”
Harridon said the greatest challenge would be the tampering of evidences as it would alter the analysis and mislead the investigation.
New Delhi-based aviation consultant Bimal K. Srivastava said as this was a sudden attack, where crew and passengers simultaneously died, there were feeble chances of any firm evidence.
Bimal said also there might not be any related recording in the black box.
“Investigators have to get unbiased cooperation from all corners, only then a fair and conclusive investigation is possible.”