SEREMBAN: Prior to nomination day yesterday, observers had placed Negri Sembilan as the most predictable out of the six states in terms of the outcome of the Aug 12 state elections.
That perception has changed somewhat after the nomination process of candidates for the 36 constituencies across the state concluded.
The fiasco in the Ampangan seat, with PKR's former assemblyman Datuk Dr Mohamad Rafie Ab Malek going in as an independent, has put everything in a state of flux.
Rafie sprung the surprise when he appeared at the Paroi Youth and Sports Complex in Seremban to file his nomination form to defend the Ampangan seat as an independent candidate.
This was despite the decision by the top leadership of PKR and Pakatan Haparan (PH) to replace him with Seremban PKR branch women's chief Tengku Zamrah Tengku Sulaiman for the seat.
Rafie, who was Seremban PKR branch deputy chief, was promptly sacked from the party.
Before his sacking, he claimed that his name was axed from the list of candidates by PKR deputy president Rafizi Ramli and vice-president Datuk Seri Aminuddin Harun.
Also vying for the seat is Perikatan Nasional's Muhammad Ghazali Zainal Abidin.
Ampangan is one of the four state constituencies under the Seremban parliamentary constituency, whose member of parliament is DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke.
There were views that Rafie's decision to defy the PKR top leadership was proof that all was not well in the party and that such discontent could deny PH and Barisan Nasional (BN) a chance at securing a comfortable win in Negri Sembilan.
Political analyst Dr Azmi Hassan believed it did not reflect the full picture, saying that it involved only a small group of people within Ampangan PKR.
"I believe the discontent is not widespread and limited to Ampangan PKR alone," the senior fellow with the Nusantera Academy for Strategic Research said.
He linked the Ampangan issue with the tension that erupted between BN and Parti Amanah Negara over the Lenggeng seat.
Before the dissolution of the Negri Sembilan State Legislative Assembly, Lenggeng was one of three seats held by Amanah. The seat, however, was given to BN for the state election.
"Amanah wasn't happy with the decision. The political party displayed its displeasure, but it stopped there. Whether the displeasure will be brought to the ballot boxes, it is too early to say," Azmi said.
Rafie, Tengku Zamrah and Ghazali are among 83 candidates contesting the Negri Sembilan state election. Of the total seats up for grabs, 27 constituencies will see a straight fight, mainly between the PH-BN alliance and PN.
Another constituency shaping up into a hot seat is Lenggeng, which was previously held by Amanah.
Umno is fielding its Seremban division vice-chief, Mohd Asna Amin, in Lenggeng, which is one of the seven constituencies in the state that will see three-cornered fights.
Other seats to watch are Chennah and Rantau, with Loke and Umno deputy president Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan defending the seats, respectively.
There were claims that BN and PH are fielding their top guns to defend the seats to boost the coalitions' prospects of being able to name the next menteri besar.
Loke and Mohamad have downplayed the speculation.
"I have known Mohamad for some time. I will try to find the time to provide my support for him in the polls," said Loke after filing his nomination papers for the Chennah state seat.
Aminuddin, who is caretaker Negri Sembilan menteri besar and state PH chairman, is defending his Sikamat state seat.
BN is fielding Jelebu MP and state Umno liaison committee chairman Datuk Seri Jalaluddin Alias in Pertang — a move that intensified speculation that the coalition is also eyeing the menteri besar's post.
Other seats to look out for is Klawang, where PN is fielding Danni Rais of Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia, who is the son of former Dewan Negara president Tan Sri Rais Yatim, to try to capture the seat from Amanah's Datuk Bakri Sawir.
In the 14th General Election, PH won 20 seats, while the remaining 16 constituencies went to BN.