Are we in a housing bubble? Is the property market crashing? The answer is no!
While little remains certain about the months ahead, based on the market’s reactions in the past, and the factors currently at play, such as the coronavirus pandemic, there aren’t enough signs, or for that matter, any signs at all indicating there is a bubble.
“Property transactions have decreased as a result of the outbreak, so the odds of a bursting bubble are low,” said Siva Shanker, a senior real estate expert.
A property bubble is driven by high demand, skyrocketing prices, limited supply, and unsustainable spending.
Property prices must be rising and rising at a much faster pace than our salary growth. Between 2009 and 2013, there was double-digit house price growth but thankfully Bank Negara Malaysia came and introduced cooling measures to curb speculative activities which had minimised.
To burst, or for the market to collapse, there would need to be a stagnant demand, with an influx of supply, leading to a sharp drop in prices and Malaysia is lucky enough that it is not experiencing any of that, he told NST Property.
Shanker, who is chief executive officer, Real Estate Agency of Rahim & Co International and Past President of the Malaysian Institute of Estate Agents said the local property market is not facing a major crisis that one can sum it up as a bubble.
"This is not a bubble. Imagine you blowing and blowing a soap bubble and the bubble gets bigger and eventually, it will burst. In the real estate market, when the prices go up and up for a few consecutive years, just like that soup bubble, it will burst.
"It will burst because the fundamentals don't support that kind of price hike. This, unfortunately, is a funny scenario with the coronavirus, which has created havoc in the lives of human beings.
"Because of the virus, the stock market crashed, hotels and airlines have no business, major events and weddings are called off, and even funerals are conducted differently. So it is not a bubble, but an unprecedented scenario that has affected the whole market."
Shanker said the current situation in the market where property transactions and launches have dropped by a considerable amount even more so after January this year is because of Covid-19.
He said the illness has caused a bigger financial burden than it has a health burden.
"In a normal kind of scenario, you can predict a crash quite easily if you have the data. Property values increasing quickly, housing prices skyrocketing, major launches taking place and all the launches taken up, and unprecedented demand where the supply cannot catch up, these are all some of the clear indications that a bubble is going to burst and a crash will be eminent. But in this current market, you can't see any of those.
"Prices are not increasing, and there is no multiple selling. There is no huge pent-up demand or any major launches. We are not in a bubble, we are in a Covid-19 crash. Once this thing is over, the market will rebound," he said.